Monday, April 10, 2006

Musings on the Back Up Goaltender


The back up goaltender. The most thankless job in the world. No respect, little playing time, no one knows your name, and know one cares.

But should they?

A wise man once told me to never trade down on my back up goaltender and I'm starting to think he may have been right.

Maybe the back up is one of the most important players on the team.

Consider this:

Your starter can only play aproximately 60 games so your back up has to start 20 games. If you have a 70 ov back up he's likely to singlhandedly lose you 12-15 of those games.

If your starter wins you 40 games out of 60 your team is playing at fantastic .666 clip. If your back up loses you only 10 of his 20 starts you're reduced to a .625 clip. If he's really bad he could lose you 15 so you're reduced to a .563 winning percentage.

Over 80 games a .666 winning percentage translates to 53 wins or 106 points.
Over 80 games a .563 winning percentage translates to 45 wins or 90 pionts.

That's a huge swing!

But what if your team is not as fantastic as the team in that example. Let's say that with your 80 ov goalie playing your team is a middle of the pack team who plays .550 so you gain 33 wins or 66 points. You trade your back up for a scorer or dman and you end up with a crappy back up. He loses you 15 of 20 games means you only gain 10 more points for a total winning percentage of .475 and 76 points. You're out of the playoffs.

The lesson: Respect your back up!

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